Okay, so this idea was in my mind since the last 3.5 years and was feeling to share it with all of you soon, but was waiting for the apt moment. And that has come now. With World Cup round the corner, I have some different methodology to predict and confirm that WC 2011 will be won by India.
I am a Data Analyst, Statistics my cup of tea, so here it goes. I am doing a trend analysis to predict this.
Sachin Tendulkar made his debut in 1989, his 1st World Cup was in 1992. Since then, he has played 4 more World Cups - 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007. This will be his 6th (and the last of course) [why I am saying last is because he would continue playing in 2015 only if India doesn't win this WC, but as I am predicting it will, so Sachin will not be willing to stretch it to 2015]
In 1992, India was one of the bottom-most teams, 7th out of 8 teams. Sachin had an okay series. He batted at number 4.
In 1996, India reached till semi final (assume it was 3rd out of 12 teams). Sachin had an awesome series, scoring highest 523 runs. He opened the innings.
In 1999, India was knocked out of the Super Sixes (5th out of 12 teams). Sachin again had just an okay series. He batted at number 4 this time.
In 2003, India reached the finals (2nd out of 14 teams). Sachin had an incredible dream series, scoring record 673 runs. He again opened this time.
In 2007, India fared poorly, knocked out of the 1st round only (would have been in the bottom 4 teams). Sachin had a poor series, he batted at number 4.
Now following the trend, Sachin does amazingly well when opening, in alternate World Cups. With all probability of Sachin opening this time and even the trend says so, he is most likely to be the top scorer in the WC this time too.
Also, India was 3rd in 1996, 2nd in 2003 and now will be 1st in 2011 (progression in alternate World Cups).
This analysis is supported well by the fact that India is one of the favorites to win this time, the other team being South Africa. Again following the trend, South Africa has always been the favorites, yet something unfortunate happens to them each WC.
WC 1992 - D/L method left them to score 20 odd runs in 1 ball when they were on the road to win.
WC 1996 - won all the league matches in their group, yet were knocked out of West Indies, a weak team by then.
WC 1999 - were sailing smoothly when Klusner-Donald mishap resulted in a tie against Australia.
WC 2003 - Rain and D/L again resulted in their ouster.
WC 2007 - Won most matches handsomely, but choked at the last moments. Lost against Bangladesh.
So something unfortunate will yet again happen to them this year as well, may be a defeat by a minnow again [:P]
Together with the above analysis, India is going strong. The team is strong, we have the bench strength, we have Zaheer, we have Sehwag and Gambhir and Yuvi, and this WC is in India, where Raina and Kohli are tigers. And we have Dhoni's LUCK.
Hence, India are WC 2011 winners :)
4 comments:
Research and Analysis ka acha use kiya hai blog me ...hypothesis supported by facts
kitna sochta hai be cricket ke baare main....
but really a good analysis I appreciate it...
kuch kuch bhi bakar ...Tere jaise logon ki wajah se har saal desh ke kitne man hours waste hote hain ;)
As I said, I too had a gut feeling (no predictive analysis) in 2009 itself, about this good news. Also a couple of lessons to be learned from India's win:
1. Never cheat - Sangakara did that during the toss and then Kulasekra didn't walk when he knew he was out. They got the results of their deeds :)
2. Pressure helps - India faced tough matches with England, SA, Auss, Pak and hence kept their nerves, unlike SL, who became complacent after playing NZa dn other easier teams.
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